Permafrost dynamics and the risk of anthrax transmission: a modelling study.

A recent outbreak of anthrax disease, severely affecting reindeer herds in Siberia, has been reportedly associated to the presence of infected carcasses or spores released from the active layer over permafrost, which is thawing and thickening at increasing rates, thus underlying the re-emerging nature of this pathogen in the Arctic region because of warming temperatures. Anthrax is a global zoonotic and epizootic disease, with a high case-fatality ratio in infected animals. Its transmission is mediated by environmental contamination through highly resistant spores which can persist in the soil for several decades. Here we develop and analyze a new epidemiological model for anthrax transmission that is specifically tailored to the Arctic environmental conditions. The model describes transmission dynamics including also herding practices (e.g. seasonal grazing) and the role of the active layer over permafrost acting as a long-term storage of spores that could be viable for disease transmission during thawing periods. Model dynamics are investigated through linear stability analysis, Floquet theory for periodically forced systems, and a series of simulations with realistic forcings. Results show how the temporal variability of grazing and active layer thawing may influence the dynamics of anthrax disease and, specifically, favor sustained pathogen transmission. Particularly warm years, favoring deep active layers, are shown to be associated with an increase risk of anthrax outbreaks, and may also foster infections in the following years. Our results enable preliminary insights into measures (e.g. changes in herding practice) that may be adopted to decrease the risk of infection and lay the basis to possibly establish optimal procedures for preventing transmission; furthermore, they elicit the need of further investigations and observation campaigns focused on anthrax dynamics in the Arctic environment.

Human anthrax in Kyrgyz Republic: Epidemiology and clinical features.

BACKGROUND: Bacillus anthracis infects both humans and animals which leads to anthrax disease. The disease is still a global issue as it occurs naturally and has a potential use for bioterrorism/bio-weapons agents. This study aimed to investigate the clinical and epidemiologic features of human anthrax that has been seen in Kyrgyzstan. METHODS: This study was carried out at the Osh Regional Hospital that is located in the southern regions of Kyrgyz Republic. Medical records of patient's diagnosed with cutaneous anthrax between 2005 and 2015 were reviewed. Epidemiology and clinical features of the infection and the effectiveness of antibiotic therapy were investigated. RESULTS: Two hundred thirty four anthrax cases were reviewed. Among the patients, men in the 31-50 age group prevailed. Infection episodes that sought medical attention occurred mostly during the summer and autumn. Analysis of epidemiological data shows that anthrax contamination occurred as a result of direct contact with mainly farm animals, slaughtering, butchering and the selling of the meat. Cutaneous lesions were localized mostly in the upper extremities. Among the observed patients, a majority of the cases presented a mild form of the disease. The isolated strains of B. anthracis were mostly susceptible to amoxiclav, ofloxacin, 3rd generation of cephalosporins, doxycycline, ciprofloxacin, rifampicin, penicillin and streptomycin. A majority of the isolates were found to be resistant to ampicillin, gentamicin, chloramphenicol. CONCLUSION: Anthrax is still an endemic disease that has lead to outbreaks in the Kyrgyz Republic. The transmission of human infection is seen by direct contact with ill animals or dead animal products. The common form seen in the clinical setting is cutaneous anthrax. Future studies should focus on the surveillance and infection control measurements associated with the anthrax.

Coalescence modeling of intrainfection Bacillus anthracis populations allows estimation of infection parameters in wild populations.

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For B. anthracis and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host-pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of B. anthracis in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of B. anthracis to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra (Equus quagga). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.

Insights from Bacillus anthracis strains isolated from permafrost in the tundra zone of Russia.

This article describes Bacillus anthracis strains isolated during an outbreak of anthrax on the Yamal Peninsula in the summer of 2016 and independently in Yakutia in 2015. A common feature of these strains is their conservation in permafrost, from which they were extracted either due to the thawing of permafrost (Yamal strains) or as the result of paleontological excavations (Yakut strains). All strains isolated on the Yamal share an identical genotype belonging to lineage B.Br.001/002, pointing to a common source of infection in a territory over 250 km in length. In contrast, during the excavations in Yakutia, three genetically different strains were recovered from a single pit. One strain belongs to B.Br.001/002, and whole genome sequence analysis showed that it is most closely related to the Yamal strains in spite of the remoteness of Yamal from Yakutia. The two other strains contribute to two different branches of A.Br.008/011, one of the remarkable polytomies described so far in the B. anthracis species. The geographic distribution of the strains belonging to A.Br.008/011 is suggesting that the polytomy emerged in the thirteenth century, in combination with the constitution of a unified Mongol empire extending from China to Eastern Europe. We propose an evolutionary model for B. anthracis recent evolution in which the B lineage spread throughout Eurasia and was subsequently replaced by the A lineage except in some geographically isolated areas.

The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India.

Anthrax is a potentially life-threatening bacterial disease that can spread between wild and livestock animals and humans. Transmission typically occurs indirectly via environmental exposure, with devastating consequences for human and animal health, as well as pastoralist economies. India has a high annual occurrence of anthrax in some regions, but a country-wide delineation of risk has not yet been undertaken. The current study modelled the geographical suitability of anthrax across India and its associated environmental features using a biogeographic application of machine learning. Both biotic and abiotic features contributed to risk across multiple scales of influence. The elephant-livestock interface was the dominant feature in delineating anthrax suitability. In addition, water-soil balance, soil chemistry and historical forest loss were also influential. These findings suggest that the elephant-livestock interface plays an important role in the cycling of anthrax in India. Livestock prevention efforts targeting this interface, particularly within anthropogenic ecotones, may yield successes in reducing ongoing transmission between animal hosts and subsequent zoonotic transmission to humans.

An Overview of Zoonotic Disease Outbreaks and its Forensic Management Over Time.

Most emerging or re-emerging infections are vector-borne or zoonotic and can be disseminated worldwide by infected humans or animals. They are a major public health problem and cause a great impact on economy. Zoonotic outbreaks began to be characterized in the 90s, after the creation of Europol and the FBI. Such investigations are carried by forensic pathologists and other specialists to determine whether an outbreak is natural or deliberate. This review will discuss ten zoonotic outbreaks nonrelated to wars focusing on forensic management. In conclusion, some points should be highlighted in the management of a zoonotic outbreak: (i) its diagnosis and detection by forensic pathologists and the coordination of efforts between other specialists are key factors; (ii) communication guidelines and an efficient healthcare system are crucial for any emergency response; (iii) biosafety of all specialists involved must be guaranteed.

An Optimal Control Model to Reduce and Eradicate Anthrax Disease in Herbivorous Animals.

Anthrax is a fatal infectious disease which can affect animals and humans alike. Anthrax outbreaks occur periodically in animals, and they are of particular concern in herbivores, due to substantial economic consequences associated with animal death. The purpose of this study is to develop optimal control interventions that focus on vaccinating susceptible animals and/or removing infected carcasses. Our mathematical goal is to minimize the infectious animal population while reducing the cost of interventions. Optimal control interventions are derived theoretically, and numerical results with conclusions are presented.

Decoupling environmental effects and host population dynamics for anthrax, a classic reservoir-driven disease.

Quantitative models describing environmentally-mediated disease transmission rarely focus on the independent contribution of recruitment and the environment on the force of infection driving outbreaks. In this study we attempt to investigate the interaction between external factors and host's population dynamics in determining the outbreaks of some indirectly transmitted diseases. We first built deterministic and stochastic compartmental models based on anthrax which were parameterized using information from literature and complemented with field observations. Our force of infection function was derived modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process that depends on the pathogen's dispersion effort. After accounting for individual heterogeneity in pathogen's dispersion effort, we allowed the force of infection to vary seasonally according to external factors recreating a scenario in which disease transmission increases in response to an environmental variable. Using simulations we demonstrate that anthrax disease dynamics in mid-latitude grasslands is decoupled from hosts population dynamics. When seasonal forcing was ignored, outbreaks matched hosts reproductive events, a scenario that is not realistic in nature. Instead, when allowing the force of infection to vary seasonally, outbreaks were only present in years were environmental variables were appropriate for the outbreaks to develop. We used the stochastic formulation of the force of infection to derive R0 under scenarios with different assumptions. The derivation of R0 allowed us to conclude that during epizootic years, pathogen contribution to disease persistence is nearly independent of dispersion. In endemic years, only pathogens with high dispersion significantly prevent disease extinction. Finally, we used our model in a maximum likelihood framework to estimate the parameters that determined a significant anthrax outbreak in Montana in 2008. Our study highlights the importance of the environment in determining anthrax outbreak intensity and could be useful to predict future events that could result in significant wildlife and domestic livestock losses.

Genetic characteristics of Bacillus anthracis isolated from northwestern China from 1990 to 2016.

Anthrax is a global re-emerging zoonotic disease and is an endemic disease in China, especially in rural regions. In this study, the general characteristics of human anthrax outbreaks that occurred in areas of northwestern China over the past decade have been described. Meanwhile, the genetic characteristics of Bacillus anthracis isolated from these areas from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by means of canonical single-nucleotide polymorphism (canSNP) analysis and multilocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) with 15 markers. Five sublineages/subgroups, namely, A.Br.001/002, A.Br.Vollum, A.Br.Aust94, A.Br.Ames and A.Br.008/009, were detected by using 13 canSNP sites. All of the sublineages were found in Xinjiang province, while one sublineage was found in Shaanxi, two in Gansu, three in Qinghai and four in Inner Mongolia. However, the geographical distribution of the B. anthracis populations exhibited different canSNP characteristics from those of the strains isolated before 1990 in China. In contrast to previous data, the A.Br.Ames subgroup was also observed to be scattered from Inner Mongolia to other provinces. All 106 strains were assigned to 36 MLVA15 genotypes, and 21 of these types were first observed in this study. The strains collected from anthrax outbreaks in recent decade were classified as subgroups A.Br.001/002 and A.Br.Ames and identified as genotypes MLVA15-28, MLVA15-30, MLVA15-31, MLVA15-38, MLVA15-CHN3, and MLVA15-CHN18. By canSNP analysis and MLVA, we found that the diversification of MLVA genotypes and the geographical distribution of B. anthracis populations is gradually becoming balanced across northwestern China. This study also provides preliminary survey results regarding the population diversity of B. anthracis in China, which will help promote the prevention and control of this important disease.

Drumming-associated anthrax incidents: exposures to low levels of indoor environmental contamination.

Two fatal drumming-related inhalational anthrax incidents occurred in 2006 and 2008 in the UK. One individual was a drum maker and drummer from the Scottish Borders, most likely infected whilst playing a goat-skin drum contaminated with Bacillus anthracis spores; the second, a drummer and drum maker from East London, likely became infected whilst working with contaminated animal hides.We have collated epidemiological and environmental data from these incidents and reviewed them alongside three similar contemporaneous incidents in the USA. Sampling operations recovered the causative agent from drums and drum skins and from residences and communal buildings at low levels. From these data, we have considered the nature of the exposures and the number of other individuals likely to have been exposed, either to the primary infection events or to subsequent prolonged environmental contamination (or both).Despite many individual exposures to widespread low-level spore contamination in private residences and in work spaces for extended periods of time (at least 1 year in one instance), only one other individual acquired an infection (cutaneous). Whilst recognising the difficulty in making definitive inferences from these incidents to specific residual contamination levels, and by extending the risk to public health, we believe it may be useful to reflect on these findings when considering future incident management risk assessments and decisions in similar incidents that result in low-level indoor contamination.

[An historical, sociocultural view and in the fiction literature of Bacillus anthracis cases by shaving brushes]. / Una visión histórica, socio-cultural y literaria de casos de Bacillus anthracis por brochas de afeitar.

In the period from 1915 to 1924 anthrax outbreaks were described by Bacillus anthracis due to the contamination of razor brushes that reached Europe and the United States from areas such as Japan, China or Russia. The brushes were made with badger hair, and then, to reduce the cost with horse hair and other animals. World War I supoosed that the traffics of these brushes, that passed through Europe, changed and the processes of sterilization of the same were deficient giving rise to these outbreaks, that in a percentage of 20% produced the death of the users. The impact of the fashion of wearing a beard, the presence of these cases in the press, in the society of that period, and literature are studied through the work of Agatha Christie who wrote, in 1936, the Hercules Poirot´s novel Cards on the table, and where she describes the murder of one of the characters with the shaving brush contaminated with Bacillus anthracis spores.

DUST-BATHING BEHAVIORS OF AFRICAN HERBIVORES AND THE POTENTIAL RISK OF INHALATIONAL ANTHRAX.

: Anthrax in herbivorous wildlife and livestock is generally assumed to be transmitted via ingestion or inhalation of Bacillus anthracis spores. Although recent studies have highlighted the importance of the ingestion route for anthrax transmission, little is known about the inhalational route in natural systems. Dust bathing could aerosolize soilborne pathogens such as B. anthracis, exposing dust-bathing individuals to inhalational infections. We investigated the potential role of dust bathing in the transmission of inhalational anthrax to herbivorous wildlife in Etosha National Park, Namibia, an area with endemic seasonal anthrax outbreaks. We 1) cultured soils from dust-bathing sites for the presence and concentration of B. anthracis spores, 2) monitored anthrax carcass sites, the locations with the highest B. anthracis concentrations, for evidence of dust bathing, including a site where a zebra died of anthrax on a large dust bath, and 3) characterized the ecology and seasonality of dust bathing in plains zebra ( Equus quagga), blue wildebeest ( Connochaetes taurinus), and African savanna elephant ( Loxodonta africana) using a combination of motion-sensing camera traps and direct observations. Only two out of 83 dust-bath soils were positive for B. anthracis, both with low spore concentrations (≤20 colony-forming units per gram). We also detected no evidence of dust baths occurring at anthrax carcass sites, perhaps due to carcass-induced changes in soil composition that may deter dust bathing. Finally, despite observing some seasonal variation in dust bathing, preliminary evidence suggests that the seasonality of dust bathing and anthrax mortalities are not correlated. Thus, although dust bathing creates a dramatic cloud of aerosolized soil around an individual, our microbiologic, ecologic, and behavioral results in concert demonstrate that dust bathing is highly unlikely to transmit inhalational anthrax infections.

Enhancing Surveillance and Diagnostics in Anthrax-Endemic Countries.

Naturally occurring anthrax disproportionately affects the health and economic welfare of poor, rural communities in anthrax-endemic countries. However, many of these countries have limited anthrax prevention and control programs. Effective prevention of anthrax outbreaks among humans is accomplished through routine livestock vaccination programs and prompt response to animal outbreaks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses a 2-phase framework when providing technical assistance to partners in anthrax-endemic countries. The first phase assesses and identifies areas for improvement in existing human and animal surveillance, laboratory diagnostics, and outbreak response. The second phase provides steps to implement improvements to these areas. We describe examples of implementing this framework in anthrax-endemic countries. These activities are at varying stages of completion; however, the public health impact of these initiatives has been encouraging. The anthrax framework can be extended to other zoonotic diseases to build on these efforts, improve human and animal health, and enhance global health security.

Resource-driven encounters among consumers and implications for the spread of infectious disease.

Animals share a variety of common resources, which can be a major driver of conspecific encounter rates. In this work, we implement a spatially explicit mathematical model for resource visitation behaviour in order to examine how changes in resource availability can influence the rate of encounters among consumers. Using simulations and asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that, under a reasonable set of assumptions, the relationship between resource availability and consumer conspecific encounters is not monotonic. We characterize how the maximum encounter rate and associated critical resource density depend on system parameters like consumer density and the maximum distance from which consumers can detect and respond to resources. The assumptions underlying our theoretical model and analysis are motivated by observations of large aggregations of black-backed jackals at carcasses generated by seasonal outbreaks of anthrax among herbivores in Etosha National Park, Namibia. As non-obligate scavengers, black-backed jackals use carcasses as a supplemental food resource when they are available. While jackals do not appear to acquire disease from ingesting anthrax carcasses, changes in their movement patterns in response to changes in carcass abundance do alter jackals' conspecific encounter rate in ways that may affect the transmission dynamics of other diseases, such as rabies. Our theoretical results provide a method to quantify and analyse the hypothesis that the outbreak of a fatal disease among herbivores can potentially facilitate outbreaks of an entirely different disease among jackals. By analysing carcass visitation data, we find support for our model's prediction that the number of conspecific encounters at resource sites decreases with additional increases in resource availability. Whether or not this site-dependent effect translates to an overall decrease in encounters depends, unexpectedly, on the relationship between the maximum distance of detection and the resource density.

Role of Food Insecurity in Outbreak of Anthrax Infections among Humans and Hippopotamuses Living in a Game Reserve Area, Rural Zambia.

In September 2011, a total of 511 human cases of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) infection and 5 deaths were reported in a game management area in the district of Chama, Zambia, near where 85 hippopotamuses (Hippopotamus amphibious) had recently died of suspected anthrax. The human infections generally responded to antibiotics. To clarify transmission, we conducted a cross-sectional, interviewer-administered household survey in villages where human anthrax cases and hippopotamuses deaths were reported. Among 284 respondents, 84% ate hippopotamus meat before the outbreak. Eating, carrying, and preparing meat were associated with anthrax infection. Despite the risk, 23% of respondents reported they would eat meat from hippopotamuses found dead again because of food shortage (73%), lack of meat (12%), hunger (7%), and protein shortage (5%). Chronic food insecurity can lead to consumption of unsafe foods, leaving communities susceptible to zoonotic infection. Interagency cooperation is necessary to prevent outbreaks by addressing the root cause of exposure, such as food insecurity.

Anthrax Cases Associated with Animal-Hair Shaving Brushes.

During the First World War, anthrax cases in the United States and England increased greatly and seemed to be associated with use of new shaving brushes. Further investigation revealed that the source material and origin of shaving brushes had changed during the war. Cheap brushes of imported horsehair were being made to look like the preferred badger-hair brushes. Unfortunately, some of these brushes were not effectively disinfected and brought with them a nasty stowaway: Bacillus anthracis. A review of outbreak summaries, surveillance data, and case reports indicated that these cases originated from the use of ineffectively disinfected animal-hair shaving brushes. This historical information is relevant to current public health practice because renewed interest in vintage and animal-hair shaving brushes has been seen in popular culture. This information should help healthcare providers and public health officials answer questions on this topic.

Genetic source tracking of an anthrax outbreak in Shaanxi province, China.

BACKGROUND: Anthrax is an acute zoonotic infectious disease caused by the bacterium known as Bacillus anthracis. From 26 July to 8 August 2015, an outbreak with 20 suspected cutaneous anthrax cases was reported in Ganquan County, Shaanxi province in China. The genetic source tracking analysis of the anthrax outbreak was performed by molecular epidemiological methods in this study. METHODS: Three molecular typing methods, namely canonical single nucleotide polymorphisms (canSNP), multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA), and single nucleotide repeat (SNR) analysis, were used to investigate the possible source of transmission and identify the genetic relationship among the strains isolated from human cases and diseased animals during the outbreak. RESULTS: Five strains isolated from diseased mules were clustered together with patients' isolates using canSNP typing and MLVA. The causative B. anthracis lineages in this outbreak belonged to the A.Br.001/002 canSNP subgroup and the MLVA15-31 genotype (the 31 genotype in MLVA15 scheme). Because nine isolates from another four provinces in China were clustered together with outbreak-related strains by the canSNP (A.Br.001/002 subgroup) and MLVA15 method (MLVA15-31 genotype), still another SNR analysis (CL10, CL12, CL33, and CL35) was used to source track the outbreak, and the results suggesting that these patients in the anthrax outbreak were probably infected by the same pathogen clone. CONCLUSIONS: It was deduced that the anthrax outbreak occurred in Shaanxi province, China in 2015 was a local occurrence.

Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event.

Health officials lack field-implementable tools for forecasting the effects that a large-scale release of Bacillus anthracis spores would have on public health and hospitals. We created a modeling tool (combining inhalational anthrax caseload projections based on initial case reports, effects of variable postexposure prophylaxis campaigns, and healthcare facility surge capacity requirements) to project hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event, and we examined the consequences of intervention choices. With only 3 days of case counts, the model can predict final attack sizes for simulated Sverdlovsk-like events (1979 USSR) with sufficient accuracy for decision making and confirms the value of early postexposure prophylaxis initiation. According to a baseline scenario, hospital treatment volume peaks 15 days after exposure, deaths peak earlier (day 5), and recovery peaks later (day 23). This tool gives public health, hospital, and emergency planners scenario-specific information for developing quantitative response plans for this threat.

A Mathematical Model of Anthrax Transmission in Animal Populations.

A general mathematical model of anthrax (caused by Bacillus anthracis) transmission is formulated that includes live animals, infected carcasses and spores in the environment. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is calculated, and existence of a unique endemic equilibrium is established for [Formula: see text] above the threshold value 1. Using data from the literature, elasticity indices for [Formula: see text] and type reproduction numbers are computed to quantify anthrax control measures. Including only herbivorous animals, anthrax is eradicated if [Formula: see text]. For these animals, oscillatory solutions arising from Hopf bifurcations are numerically shown to exist for certain parameter values with [Formula: see text] and to have periodicity as observed from anthrax data. Including carnivores and assuming no disease-related death, anthrax again goes extinct below the threshold. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium is established above the threshold; thus, periodic solutions are not possible for these populations. It is shown numerically that oscillations in spore growth may drive oscillations in animal populations; however, the total number of infected animals remains about the same as with constant spore growth.